Why has mortgage interest increased? Recent hot spot analysis and data interpretation
Recently, the rise in mortgage interest rates has become a hot topic across the Internet. Many home buyers have found that monthly payments have suddenly increased, and the interest rate for first-time home buyers has even exceeded 5% in some cities. This article will combine the hot data from the entire network in the past 10 days to analyze the reasons, impacts and response strategies for the rise in mortgage interest rates.
1. Core data on rising mortgage interest rates
| statistical dimension | Data performance | Contrast changes |
|---|---|---|
| National first home loan average interest rate | 4.85% | +0.15% from last month |
| Average interest rate for second homes | 5.35% | +0.20% from last month |
| Highest interest rates in hot cities | Suzhou 5.6% | Set a new high in 2023 |
| LPR quotation (5-year period) | 4.20% | Staying flat for 3 consecutive months |
2. Three major reasons for rising interest rates
1. Rising bank funding costs:Since October, interbank certificates of deposit interest rates have continued to rise, with the one-year AAA certificate of deposit interest rate reaching 2.65%, an increase of 25 basis points from September, directly pushing up bank lending costs.
2. Real estate policy adjustments:After many places canceled the "recognition of houses but not loans" policy, some banks adjusted market demand through interest rate fluctuations. Data shows that the average interest rate increase in cities with loose policies reached 0.3%, which is higher than that in cities with strict regulations.
3. Impact of quarterly assessment:Towards the end of the fourth quarter, bank credit lines are tightening. The scale of new mortgage loans in October fell by 18% month-on-month. Some banks have taken the initiative to raise interest rates to control the pace of lending.
3. Comparison of the impact on different groups of people
| Crowd type | Monthly payment increase | Change in total interest cost |
|---|---|---|
| New loan homebuyers | 200-500 yuan/million loan | Pay 40,000-80,000 yuan more |
| Existing floating interest rate customers | Adjustment in January of the following year | Expect to pay an extra 30,000-50,000 yuan |
| Signed yet unfinanced customers | Based on the interest rate at the time of lending | There is uncertainty |
4. Expert advice and coping strategies
1. Compare multiple banks:At present, the interest rate difference between different banks is as high as 0.5%. It is recommended to give priority to small and medium-sized banks or foreign banks. Data show that the average interest rate of joint-stock banks is 0.15% lower than that of large state-owned banks.
2. Pay attention to the LPR change window:The new LPR will be announced on November 20. If it is lowered, interest expenses can be saved. Historical data shows that within one month after the LPR is lowered, mortgage interest rates generally follow suit.
3. Consider fixed rate products:Some banks have launched 3-5-year fixed-rate loans. The current locked-in interest rate can avoid future rising risks. However, it should be noted that fixed interest rates are usually 0.1-0.3% higher than floating interest rates.
5. Forecast of future trends
Comprehensive financial institutions predict that mortgage interest rates may remain high and fluctuate in the fourth quarter:
| institution | Forecast for the end of 2023 | Key influencing factors |
|---|---|---|
| CICC | Maintain current level | Steady monetary policy |
| CITIC Securities | fell slightly by 0.1% | Year-end impulse demand |
| China Minsheng Bank | Continue to rise 0.2% | Funding continues to be tight |
It is recommended that home buyers pay close attention to the central bank’s monetary policy trends, give priority to cooperative properties with favorable interest rates, and consider extending the loan period to reduce monthly payment pressure if necessary. For improvement needs, you can wait for the promotion window period of real estate companies at the end of the year, and some developers provide interest discounts.
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